Prediction markets: investing in what is about to happen

From whether Argentina wins the next World Cup to whether the Fed cuts rates in June. How prediction markets are redefining the way we measure the future.


A prediction market is, in essence, a market that prices the probability of an event. If you say "I think the Fed cuts rates in June," you can buy a contract that pays $1 if it does and $0 if it does not.

Why they matter

Prediction markets are, in many cases, better forecasters than polls or analysts. It makes sense: people are betting real money. Bias prices itself out.